GRIGGS REPORT

This is not a Zillow or Trulia skewed report. It’s real statistics.

Thanks to the provider Mike Griggs a colleague and fine Kona Broker.

Aloha,

The purpose of the Griggs Report is  to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island.    Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking.    However price data is based on past sales.    Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and  give  clues as to future price direction and  rate of change.     The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic.  By following the Pending Ratio’s  over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends.    The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand  versus supply.

Several new market recover first since last report two weeks ago!

  1. The latest data from Hawaii Information Service indicates the Residential market quite strong.    Inventory is far less than  a year ago. The best news is the Pending Ratio has reached a new recovery high of 75.    Median Price has resumed an increasing trend and has reached  a new recovery high, ($630,000), for home price under $4.0M.   The shrinking lower priced inventory and increased demand in the higher price ranges continues to move Average and Median Price higher.

 

  1. The price range data at the top of page 2 shows has a  recovery first.    The Pending Ratio suggest that the Kona Residential market for homes priced up to $700,000 is a hot market with more than a buyer for every active listing.   The   $900,000 to $ 1.5M price range is at recovery high Pending Ratio of Peak market level at 104.  The number of 12 month sales in the over $4.0M price range is holding at the  recovery high of 32.

 

  1. The Hawaii Island  overall inventory for all Residential Price Ranges has dipped below 1000.     Another recovery mile mark. In 2009 the Hawaii Island inventory was 1000 more homes than today.

 

  1. Overall the distressed property inventory on the market continues a  decline at a very slow pace.   The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide is unchanged from last year.   It now stands at 10% of all listings.    In 2012 approximately  40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales.

 

  1. Condo Pending Ratio has taken a nice upswing in the last two months thanks to declining inventory.    As mentioned in last report this has moved prices  higher.     All  this improvement in price and sales numbers has pushed the 12 month volume up +$26.0M from the previous twelve months volume.    The Median Price is a new Recovery high….$300,000 (rnd).

 

  1. Recent Land data shows a weaker market than Residential and Condo.   The Pending Ratio and Average and Median Prices show a decline from a year ago.   One recover high is seen in the number of Pending sales – 24.     This should continue to drive sales numbers higher and eventually lift the Average and Media  Prices.

 

  1. Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page.    It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res.,  Condo, Land and  Hawaii Island.    The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios.    The Pending Ratios are  showing strong positive numbers over 2017.     Hawaii Island Pending Ratio has reached Seller’s market designation.    It is at new recovery high of 55 for the first time since the recovery began.

 

  1. The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been  updated with the new 2017 data.        This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which have resold over the years.   The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,370 in the 23 subdivisions in the study.     The year/year price change  for this Mid-level housing group for 2017 is $587,100, up from 2016’s  $582,900.    This represents a 1% price increase for 2017.     This does coincide with the price change data for land,  which is the basis for real estate values.     Land values  on average for 2017 are up +1% from 2016.    I would appreciate any input from readers of the report.

 

  1. The Kona vs. West Coast is updated with February data.   San Diego year over year price change is holding around +7.5%.    This is good news for Kona and Hawaii Island as historically it has been a 6 to 12 month leading indicator as to what to expect to see in the future Kona Residential price picture.    N. Kona in Feb. was showing a +5%.

The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI 

 

/Users/leonoraprince/Desktop/Griggs Report – APRIL 30, 2018.pdf

 

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