Griggs Report – MAY 15, 2018


Courtesy of Michaels Griggs, a colleague and fine realtor here in the area, I am sharing his semi-monthly market report.

He is spot on and this is not your typical Trulia or Zillow creation.

The purpose of the Griggs Report is  to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island.    Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking.    However price data is based on past sales.    Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and  give  clues as to future price direction and  rate of change.     The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic.  By following the Pending Ratio’s  over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends.    The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand  versus supply.

Several new market recover first since last report two weeks ago!

  1. The latest data from Hawaii Information Service indicates the Residential market quite strong.    Inventory is at new recovery low of 142 for homes  price to $4.0M.   This is the lowest we have seen since early 2005.    The big difference between the two dates is the pending sales numbers were around 190 compared with the current 101.    Median Price is holding at for second week at  a new recovery high, ($630,000), for home price under $4.0M.   The shrinking lower priced inventory and increased demand in the higher price ranges continues to move Average and Median Price higher.


  1. The price range data at the top of page 2 shows has a  recovery first. Only 2 homes now available price below $400,000.   The Pending Ratio suggest that the Kona Residential market for homes priced up to $700,000 is a hot market with more than a buyer for every active listing.      The number of 12 month sales in the over $4.0M price range is holding at the  recovery high of 32.


  1. The Hawaii Island  overall inventory for all Residential Price Ranges has dipped below 1000.     NOW AT 954 , DOWN FROM 984 TWO WEEKS AGO.  In 2009 the Hawaii Island  Residential inventory was close to 2000.


  1. Overall the distressed property inventory on the market continues a  decline at a very slow pace.   The Percentage of MLS listings that are either REO or Short Sales island wide is unchanged from last year.   It now stands at 10% of all listings.    In 2012 approximately  40% of the listing inventory was either REO or Short Sales.


  1. Condo Pending Ratio has taken a nice upswing in the last two months thanks to declining inventory.    As mentioned in last report this has moved prices  higher.     All  this improvement in price and sales numbers has pushed the 12 month volume up +$26.0M from the previous twelve months volume.    The Median Price is holding at Recovery high….$300,000 (rnd).


  1. Recent Land data shows a weaker market than Residential and Condo.   The Pending Ratio and Average and Median Prices show a decline from a year ago.   One recover high is seen in the number of Pending sales holding at 24.     This should continue to drive sales numbers higher and eventually lift the Average and Media  Prices.


  1. Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page.    It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res.,  Condo, Land and  Hawaii Island.    The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios.    The Pending Ratios are  showing strong positive numbers over 2017.     Hawaii Island Pending Ratio has reached Seller’s market designation.    It is holding at new recovery high of 55 for the first time since the recovery began.


  1. The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been  updated with the new 2017 data.        This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which have resold over the years.   The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,370 in the 23 subdivisions in the study.     The year/year price change  for this Mid-level housing group for 2017 is $587,100, up from 2016’s  $582,900.    This represents a 1% price increase for 2017.     This does coincide with the price change data for land,  which is the basis for real estate values.     Land values  on average for 2017 are up +1% from 2016.    I would appreciate any input from readers of the report.


  1. The Kona vs. West Coast will resume when Case Shiller data for San Diego is updated.

Real estate colleagues:

If you distribute  material from the Griggs Report online, on your website or blog, etc.,  please include appropriate attribution.  An example is provided below.

The Griggs Report is published semi-monthly by Michael B. Griggs, PB, GRI…/Griggs-Report-MAY-15-2018.pdf